At this year’s Spinnaker Maritime People & Culture Conference, Steve Gordon delivered a thought-provoking session on the current state of maritime economics, exploring global shipping’s resilience, evolving risks, and its strategic importance in a rapidly shifting world.

Steve shared that at present, global shipping moves around 12.6 billion tonnes of cargo annually – that’s 1.5 tonnes for every person on the planet! The breakdown is telling: 38% of that volume relates to energy, 22% to metals, and 15% to containerised goods. With over 110,000 international ships and 6,000 ports being tracked globally, the scale of this industry is staggering. Yet, fewer than 250 ports are currently equipped with shore-side power connections for electric vessels – a clear indicator that green investment in port infrastructure still lags behind.

He wondered whether we’re witnessing the end of the era of globalisation. Rather than a simple conclusion, Steve argued that it’s becoming more complex – and that shipping, which has long been a cornerstone of globalisation, will continue to play a central role in navigating that complexity.

88% of global trade remains seaborne, and while the volume of trade grew by 2.5%, demand jumped by 6% – the strongest increase in 15 years. This growth followed a period of heightened shipping requirements, and although volumes in Q1 this year were up 3%, recent fluctuations suggest we’re likely to see further shifts in the coming quarters.

Steve pointed out that volatility has always been part of shipping’s business cycle, but over the last four to five years, the industry has found itself increasingly at the heart of global events. From the disruption of COVID-19 – which led container lines to lay up 15% of their ships – to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the increased cost of transiting the Red Sea, shipping has weathered intense challenges. Yet, it’s built to be resilient. Disruption, he noted, can actually prove economically beneficial to the sector due to its operational structure.

One key concern was the indirect effect of ongoing political noise, particularly regarding tariffs and US shipping policy. While the US accounts for just 6% of global trade, the uncertainty generated by its policy shifts can impact the wider market. Some of this complexity plays out across subsectors, with uneven trade flows and growing geopolitical considerations making it harder to predict future demand. It may take a few quarters before the tariff landscape becomes clearer, but Steve expects long-term trading patterns to remain blurred and increasingly driven by reshoring, diversification, and a separation between manufacturing and shipping needs.

The energy transition was another key theme. While many shipping companies may have other immediate priorities, the transition is still a driving force. Gas, in particular, was viewed as a strong growth area, but it comes with challenges. With $2.1 trillion invested and the number of ships growing by 2%, we’re seeing significant expansion in gas carriers, containers, and car carriers – all of which create demand for specialised crew and training.

One long-term issue is the ageing global fleet. It’s been 15 years since the last major shipbuilding spike, and many of those vessels now burn 30–40% more fuel than the ships being delivered today. There’s a clear need for fleet renewal across multiple sectors. As Steve noted, carbon pricing is set to hit the entire global industry, and the regulatory timetable is accelerating fast. Battery and hybrid battery systems are gaining traction, while LNG remains a highly persuasive, cost-competitive solution, especially with the potential to incorporate e-LNG and bio-energy.

Last year marked the busiest year for ship orders since 2008, particularly in container, LNG, LPG, tanker, bulk, and cruise sectors across Europe. However, newbuilding volumes have dropped sharply this year – down 50% year-on-year, with sale-and-purchase transactions down 25%. This slowdown reflects broader uncertainty, from softened charter rates to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

China, Steve pointed out, currently “holds all the cards.” It’s both price- and quality-competitive and the only shipbuilding nation to have increased its capacity. In contrast, the US represents just 0.1% of global shipbuilding, while China commands a dominant 55%. Governments are beginning to view shipping more strategically, with geopolitics dominating the agenda.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, newbuilding prices have risen by 45%, though they’ve now plateaued or started to decline slightly. While the market has cooled, it’s unlikely that prices will fall by 30–40%, and there may be windows of opportunity ahead. Ultimately, Steve concluded that the shipbuilding market remains complex and that the industry must adapt to a new normal of higher build prices and more strategic decision-making.

The key takeaway from Steve Gordon’s session was clear: shipping is at the centre of a profoundly transformative period. Trade may continue to grow, but it will do so under more complicated, fragmented, and unpredictable conditions – demanding agility, foresight, and resilience from all corners of the industry.

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