A rapidly rising trend of merchant ship newbuilding deliveries is forecast over the next couple of years. In both 2026 and the following twelve months, completions of tankers, bulk carriers, container ships, gas carriers and other ship types together are expected to see a strengthening pattern, although changes in individual segments will vary,

Reflecting ordering decisions by investors, and contracts agreed as a result, global orderbooks for newbuildings have been expanding. At the end of last year these reached the equivalent of 18% of the existing merchant ship fleet, as measured by deadweight tonnage, the highest percentage for many years. Based on Clarksons Research data the end-2025 total was 447 million dwt, consisting of almost 6,600 ships.

Within the entire orderbook deadweight total, 36% was identified as being alternative fuel capable, slightly down compared with previous end-year percentages. About 28% of all orders placed during 2025 were in this alternative fuels category.

Recent ordering

Provisional figures for last year’s ordering activity show a downturn compared with the very high level of new orders recorded in the preceding year. But despite an annual 25% reduction the 2025 total of over 150m dwt of orders placed remained large, and greatly exceeded the volume of completed ships delivered from yards, so ensuring that the newbuilding orderbook continued expanding.

Among individual segments differences in owners’ attitudes have been notable recently. Compared with the previous year, the annual volume of containership orders seen in 2025 increased, contrasting with negative changes in other categories. Gas carrier orders last year showed a huge reduction, accompanied by less dramatic albeit still big reductions in orders for tankers and bulk carriers.

Looking at more detailed statistics for 2025 newbuilding orders placed reveals that for large container ships the volume declined, while those for smaller container ships rose strongly, enabling the total to increase. Within the bulk carrier downturn, capesize orders were higher and other size groups saw declines. The tanker reduction occurred despite higher suezmax orders. In the gas carrier segment both LNG and LPG carrier ordering diminished.

What is the deliveries outlook?

After remaining stable in 2024, merchant ship newbuilding deliveries from the world’s shipyards are estimated to have risen by about 9% in 2025, reaching a total of 97m dwt. Orderbook schedules, which are a guide to future deliveries in the period ahead, suggest that the annual total could increase by about 20% or more in 2026, and potentially by a similar or greater percentage in 2027.

But the outlook is not uniform among the ship types. Schedules of completion dates point to a sharp downturn in container ship deliveries, possibly by a quarter, in 2026 before a resurgence next year. In all the other categories, increases are foreseeable during both 2026 and again in 2027, although these are likely to vary within a wide range.

In the current year as a whole, bulk carrier newbuilding deliveries may increase by about a fifth to 43m dwt amid higher volumes in the capesize/larger and panamax/kamsarmax size groups. Gas carrier deliveries this year may be up by about two-fifths to 13m dwt, mainly as a result of a higher LPG carrier volume. The outstanding performance in 2026 is expected to be an upsurge of over 80% in tanker newbuildings, perhaps reaching 37m dwt, including a five-fold expansion of vlcc deliveries and a rise in suezmax deliveries as well as growth in other size-groups.

Implied fleet growth

These calculations provide rough estimates of the new tonnage likely to be joining the main segments of the world merchant ship fleet, but what are the implications for how fleet capacity evolves? Although inflows of new tonnage suggest capacity growth, outflows of old or degraded tonnage to recycling yards will be influential in determining the impact.

For several years abnormally low global scrapping volumes have indicated that a strong upturn in recycling may be approaching, but currently it is still awaited. An arguably realistic expectation is that in 2026 demolition sales almost certainly will be higher than last year’s minimal volume of about 12m dwt for the entire world merchant ship fleet. However, the pick up may be fairly muted, even if the percentage increase from a low base is large.

Consequently, scrapping probably will offset only a limited part of the newbuilding deliveries envisaged. The likely outcome is that all the main fleet segments see substantial growth in capacity.

This envisaged pattern as a background for employment prospects seems positive. Additional seafarers’ jobs can be expected to be created by a large net increase in the number of new ships joining the fleet. Among the wide variety of tasks performed by maritime professionals more generally, an expanding fleet indicates some beneficial implications for employment opportunities.